Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 01 2020 | 3960 | 30646 | 137 | 21 | 1110 | 1325 |
| November 02 2020 | 4095 | 30734 | 138 | 21 | 1154 | 1421 |
| November 03 2020 | 4225 | 31211 | 145 | 25 | 1168 | 1489 |
| November 04 2020 | 4316 | 31442 | 148 | 28 | 1174 | 1533 |
| November 05 2020 | 4556 | 31717 | 151 | 28 | 1236 | 1706 |
| November 06 2020 | 4716 | 32083 | 151 | 30 | 1274 | 1775 |
| November 07 2020 | 4897 | 32325 | 157 | 31 | 1366 | 1840 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 8 | 5.7 | 4% | 54 | 0.47% | 77 | 0.67% |
| 10-19 | 26 | 18.1 | 12.9% | 176 | 1.29% | 249 | 1.83% |
| 20-29 | 35 | 31.0 | 20.2% | 276 | 1.32% | 369 | 1.76% |
| 30-39 | 34 | 27.6 | 17.9% | 245 | 1.8% | 317 | 2.33% |
| 40-49 | 19 | 19.4 | 12.2% | 167 | 1.6% | 223 | 2.13% |
| 50-59 | 16 | 19.7 | 13.2% | 180 | 1.43% | 250 | 1.99% |
| 60-69 | 17 | 12.3 | 8.7% | 119 | 1.03% | 171 | 1.49% |
| 70+ | 26 | 16.4 | 10.9% | 149 | 1.42% | 184 | 1.76% |
| All ages | 181 | 150.3 | 100% | 1366 | 1.31% | 1840 | 1.76% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 01 2020 | 1958 | 19236 | 67 | 24 | 679 | 926 |
| November 02 2020 | 2033 | 19273 | 70 | 24 | 715 | 909 |
| November 03 2020 | 2128 | 19511 | 73 | 24 | 731 | 998 |
| November 04 2020 | 2260 | 19647 | 76 | 24 | 863 | 1045 |
| November 05 2020 | 2434 | 19779 | 79 | 26 | 901 | 1155 |
| November 06 2020 | 2604 | 19974 | 82 | 26 | 1023 | 1286 |
| November 07 2020 | 2713 | 20102 | 83 | 29 | 1028 | 1316 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.3 | 2.6% | 27 | 0.35% | 36 | 0.46% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 7.0 | 7.8% | 80 | 0.95% | 100 | 1.19% |
| 20-29 | 18 | 15.9 | 13.9% | 143 | 2.01% | 175 | 2.46% |
| 30-39 | 19 | 22.6 | 18.9% | 194 | 2.31% | 245 | 2.91% |
| 40-49 | 19 | 21.6 | 18.9% | 194 | 2.5% | 242 | 3.12% |
| 50-59 | 22 | 18.9 | 17.1% | 176 | 1.81% | 233 | 2.4% |
| 60-69 | 14 | 13.9 | 12.3% | 126 | 1.5% | 175 | 2.08% |
| 70+ | 8 | 8.6 | 8.6% | 88 | 1.24% | 110 | 1.55% |
| All ages | 109 | 110.6 | 100% | 1028 | 1.59% | 1316 | 2.04% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 01 2020 | 1320 | 12555 | 54 | 7 | 425 | 539 |
| November 02 2020 | 1388 | 12569 | 61 | 7 | 457 | 585 |
| November 03 2020 | 1424 | 12656 | 63 | 8 | 454 | 597 |
| November 04 2020 | 1494 | 12789 | 64 | 8 | 478 | 636 |
| November 05 2020 | 1586 | 12839 | 65 | 8 | 524 | 691 |
| November 06 2020 | 1685 | 13006 | 67 | 11 | 592 | 754 |
| November 07 2020 | 1797 | 13074 | 70 | 11 | 665 | 827 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 3.1 | 4.2% | 28 | 0.52% | 31 | 0.57% |
| 10-19 | 16 | 8.4 | 11% | 73 | 1.34% | 93 | 1.71% |
| 20-29 | 15 | 10.0 | 13.7% | 91 | 2.01% | 117 | 2.59% |
| 30-39 | 15 | 11.1 | 15.6% | 104 | 1.92% | 123 | 2.27% |
| 40-49 | 20 | 12.3 | 15.9% | 106 | 2.13% | 127 | 2.55% |
| 50-59 | 17 | 11.3 | 15.6% | 104 | 1.53% | 130 | 1.92% |
| 60-69 | 12 | 9.0 | 12.5% | 83 | 1.31% | 102 | 1.61% |
| 70+ | 14 | 8.4 | 11.4% | 76 | 1.2% | 108 | 1.71% |
| All ages | 112 | 73.7 | 100% | 665 | 1.47% | 827 | 1.83% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 01 2020 | 4608 | 33134 | 93 | 23 | 647 | 850 |
| November 02 2020 | 4635 | 33228 | 93 | 23 | 651 | 818 |
| November 03 2020 | 4740 | 33696 | 96 | 23 | 715 | 872 |
| November 04 2020 | 4910 | 34026 | 99 | 23 | 827 | 1003 |
| November 05 2020 | 5035 | 34278 | 101 | 26 | 932 | 1074 |
| November 06 2020 | 5174 | 34708 | 101 | 26 | 987 | 1190 |
| November 07 2020 | 5391 | 34865 | 103 | 26 | 1135 | 1366 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 2.7 | 2% | 23 | 0.19% | 31 | 0.26% |
| 10-19 | 30 | 13.6 | 11.6% | 132 | 0.8% | 161 | 0.97% |
| 20-29 | 45 | 24.6 | 21.4% | 243 | 1.14% | 308 | 1.45% |
| 30-39 | 34 | 17.0 | 13.7% | 155 | 1.14% | 179 | 1.32% |
| 40-49 | 25 | 16.6 | 14.5% | 165 | 1.21% | 200 | 1.47% |
| 50-59 | 31 | 20.6 | 16.7% | 189 | 1.33% | 224 | 1.58% |
| 60-69 | 32 | 14.7 | 11.6% | 132 | 0.93% | 153 | 1.08% |
| 70+ | 15 | 10.4 | 8.5% | 96 | 0.74% | 110 | 0.85% |
| All ages | 217 | 120.1 | 100% | 1135 | 0.96% | 1366 | 1.16% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 01 2020 | 16011 | 242765 | 537 | 49 | 2696 | 3502 |
| November 02 2020 | 16207 | 243534 | 541 | 49 | 2652 | 3691 |
| November 03 2020 | 16768 | 244983 | 555 | 49 | 2937 | 3947 |
| November 04 2020 | 16963 | 246093 | 564 | 51 | 2837 | 3842 |
| November 05 2020 | 17295 | 246986 | 572 | 50 | 2990 | 3980 |
| November 06 2020 | 17807 | 248063 | 590 | 53 | 3247 | 4252 |
| November 07 2020 | 18274 | 249427 | 596 | 55 | 3345 | 4443 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 28 | 20.3 | 5.9% | 196 | 0.33% | 250 | 0.42% |
| 10-19 | 90 | 52.4 | 14.9% | 498 | 0.7% | 648 | 0.91% |
| 20-29 | 124 | 81.9 | 24.2% | 808 | 0.78% | 1062 | 1.02% |
| 30-39 | 74 | 55.1 | 15.5% | 519 | 0.68% | 712 | 0.93% |
| 40-49 | 63 | 50.3 | 14% | 469 | 0.71% | 614 | 0.94% |
| 50-59 | 45 | 38.0 | 11.4% | 381 | 0.58% | 523 | 0.8% |
| 60-69 | 20 | 24.6 | 7.1% | 238 | 0.44% | 315 | 0.58% |
| 70+ | 23 | 25.3 | 7.1% | 236 | 0.48% | 319 | 0.65% |
| All ages | 467 | 347.9 | 100% | 3345 | 0.61% | 4443 | 0.81% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 01 2020 | 228863 | 1841205 | 11497 | 2047 | 42763 | 58749 |
| November 02 2020 | 232296 | 1846618 | 11597 | 2050 | 41818 | 58405 |
| November 03 2020 | 238067 | 1861962 | 11844 | 2102 | 43527 | 59585 |
| November 04 2020 | 244002 | 1872295 | 12087 | 2156 | 45836 | 61315 |
| November 05 2020 | 249924 | 1881813 | 12310 | 2194 | 48875 | 63824 |
| November 06 2020 | 256065 | 1896457 | 12554 | 2256 | 49754 | 65587 |
| November 07 2020 | 263130 | 1908320 | 12727 | 2301 | 53004 | 68590 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 266 | 205.1 | 3.7% | 1981 | 0.31% | 2594 | 0.41% |
| 10-19 | 767 | 568.9 | 10.5% | 5587 | 0.74% | 7141 | 0.94% |
| 20-29 | 1329 | 957.6 | 17.5% | 9274 | 1.23% | 11914 | 1.57% |
| 30-39 | 1157 | 870.9 | 16.1% | 8510 | 1.12% | 11032 | 1.46% |
| 40-49 | 996 | 815.4 | 15% | 7944 | 1.14% | 10293 | 1.47% |
| 50-59 | 1098 | 856.6 | 16% | 8499 | 1.04% | 11031 | 1.35% |
| 60-69 | 802 | 591.1 | 11.2% | 5959 | 0.79% | 7816 | 1.03% |
| 70+ | 650 | 528.7 | 9.9% | 5251 | 0.82% | 6769 | 1.06% |
| All ages | 7065 | 5394.3 | 100% | 53004 | 0.91% | 68590 | 1.18% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 175.8 | 183 | 176.3 | 150.3 | 100.9 | 34.7% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 203.5 | 110.6 | 64.4 | 42.8% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 182.8 | 73.7 | 38 | 43.1% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 115.5 | 97.3 | 144.7 | 120.1 | 45.6 | 30.5% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81.3 | 91.2 | 102.2 | 347.9 | 248.4 | 22.6% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 117.8 | 94.3 | 157.4 | 5394.3 | 3975.6 | 31.6% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 10.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.43 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-28 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2256"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges